U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected slightly higher this month, while global wheat stocks are modestly lower.
Compared to January, the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Tuesday showed unchanged U.S. wheat supplies, modestly lower domestic use, steady exports and ending stocks rising to 931 million bu, up from 926 million last month. That is 9% higher than a year earlier and represents the largest U.S. carryout since the 2019-20 marketing year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.90/bu.
Domestic wheat use was revised lower on reduced food use, based on the latest flour milling data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, the USDA said. That decline was partially offset by a small increase in seed use, leaving total demand only modestly lower.
Globally, the 2025-26 wheat outlook points to slightly tighter conditions. Total world supplies are forecast down 600,000 tonnes this month to 1.101 billion tonnes, as lower beginning stocks and reduced production outweigh gains in some regions. Argentina’s wheat crop was raised by 300,000 tonnes to a record 27.8 million, but that increase was more than offset by production cuts in Turkey and Mongolia.
World wheat consumption is projected slightly higher this month at 824.1 million tonnes, driven by increased food, seed and industrial use in several countries. Global trade is also forecast higher, with exports rising on stronger shipments from Argentina and Canada.
Argentina’s exports are raised 2 million tonnes from last month to a record 18 million on robust December and January shipments and “highly competitive” export prices, the USDA said. Canada’s wheat exports are raised 1 million tonnes from January to 29 million.
Projected 2025-26 global wheat ending stocks are reduced 700,000 tonnes from January to 277.51 million – below the average pre-report trade guess - but remain at a five-year high with significant year-to-year increases for all major exporters.
